Manuel Lewin, Chief Risk Officer at Zurich Canada, has identified the five most pressing risks that could impact the country within the next two years. Drawing from insights in the World Economic Forum’s 2025 Global Risks Report, Lewin highlights how these challenges could shape Canada’s economic, social, and political landscape in the near future.

A Complex Global Backdrop

In today’s tightly connected world, Canadians are increasingly aware of the far-reaching global challenges that influence their domestic stability. Tensions tied to the current U.S. administration add further uncertainty—especially in areas like trade and economic policy. Guided by findings from Zurich Insurance and the WEF’s 2025 report, this analysis explores Canada’s five leading short-term risks: economic downturn, labour and skills shortages, inflation, growing poverty and inequality, and the negative effects of AI, misinformation, and disinformation.

1. Economic Downturn

A slowdown or contraction in economic activity is a looming global concern. The WEF’s latest report warns of the potential for a prolonged recession, driven by ongoing geopolitical disputes, the consequences of climate change, and vulnerabilities in global financial systems.

Canada’s economy—heavily reliant on trade and natural resource exports—would be particularly exposed to any major global disruption. A downturn could trigger reduced investment, lower consumer spending, and rising unemployment.

U.S. trade policies only compound this risk. “With ongoing disputes around tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos—and the looming April 2 deadline for broader tariff implementation—Canadian industries are already facing uncertainty,” says Lewin. “Such measures could destabilize our trade relationship and weaken economic confidence.”

To counter these effects, Canada is working toward trade resolution with the U.S. while also pushing for economic diversification and adopting stronger fiscal safeguards.

2. Labour and Talent Shortage

One of Canada’s persistent challenges is a shrinking pool of workers and skilled professionals.

According to Statistics Canada, the national birth rate dropped to 10.006 births per 1,000 people in 2024—a 0.66% decline from the year before. This, combined with an aging population, is tightening the labour supply and making it harder for industries to fill key roles.

The issue is global in nature, as countries compete for limited skilled talent. In Canada, sectors such as healthcare, tech, and engineering are already feeling the pinch. “The solution requires a multi-pronged approach,” Lewin notes. “Attracting skilled immigrants, investing in education and training, and fostering inclusive workplaces are critical to closing this gap.”

3. Inflation

With Canada’s inflation rate sitting at 2.6%, rising prices continue to put pressure on household budgets and overall economic stability.

WEF points to multiple drivers: supply chain bottlenecks, elevated energy costs, and shifting monetary policies. Inflation undermines purchasing power, discourages saving, and disrupts business planning. Additionally, Canada’s own retaliatory tariffs against U.S. goods could further drive up import costs—adding fuel to the inflationary fire.

Lewin suggests that “responsible monetary policies, real-time inflation tracking, and strengthening supply chain resilience” are essential to keep inflation under control.

4. Poverty and Inequality

Disparities in income and wealth remain a serious concern. Statistics Canada reported a consecutive rise in poverty, with the rate climbing by 2.5 percentage points in 2022—amounting to 1.4 million more people living below the poverty line than in 2020.

WEF highlights inequality as a growing global threat, with vulnerable populations—particularly Indigenous peoples and marginalized communities—bearing the brunt. These disparities jeopardize social unity and political trust.

Lewin advocates for policies that promote shared prosperity: “We must strengthen social programs, expand access to education and healthcare, and drive inclusive economic reforms.”

5. Harmful Consequences of AI, Misinformation, and Disinformation

Artificial intelligence is transforming industries—but not without risks. While AI brings efficiency gains, the 2025 WEF report warns of job displacement, ethical dilemmas, and security vulnerabilities if its growth remains unchecked.

In Canada, automation could worsen existing labour shortages in certain sectors. At the same time, misinformation—especially through digital platforms—continues to challenge public trust and democratic stability. The COVID-19 pandemic showcased how disinformation can hinder public health and exacerbate social divides.

Zurich calls for ethical AI regulations, major investments in worker reskilling, and a united effort against false information. “Media literacy, fact-checking, and collaboration between tech companies, civil society, and government are more crucial than eve

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Environmental concerns are expected to intensify over the next decade, prompting calls for greater sustainability efforts, ecosystem protection, and climate resilience.

A Web of Interconnected Risks

One key theme that Lewin emphasizes is the interconnectedness of these risks. “AI-driven disruption can widen inequality, which in turn fuels nationalism and resistance to immigration. This can drive geopolitical tensions and lead to isolationist economic policies—all of which reinforce economic vulnerability,” he explains.

Approaching these risks as part of a broader, interconnected system—rather than isolated challenges—can help shape more effective and comprehensive policy solutions.

Looking Ahead

Canada’s future depends on its ability to anticipate and adapt to an evolving risk landscape. From economic volatility and workforce shortages to rising inflation, inequality, and the growing influence of digital threats, a strategic, coordinated response is essential.

By leveraging insights from the WEF Global Risks Report 2025 and Zurich’s expertise, Canada can implement resilient policies that protect its social fabric and ensure sustainable prosperity for years to come.